The space union of all circles (grey and yellow) is the area analysed by the
M8S algorithm. Yellow indicate the area of increased probability of
M6.0+ earthquakes. The Bovec earthquake has the following parameters:
Date 1998.04.12, latitude 46.24°N, longitude 13.65°E, depth 10 km, magnitude
M
max=6.0. Its epicentre is inside the area of alarm. On the contrary, the
Assisi earthquake with the date 1997.09.26, latitude 43.08°N, longitude 12.81°E,
depth 10 km, and magnitude M
max=6.4 falls outside the alarm area.
Notes:
- The Assisi earthquake (1997.09.26, 43.08°N, 12.81°E, Mmax=6.4)
which was missed in M6.0+ test falls inside the alarm area of M5.5+ test.
- The catalogue completeness in space and time progresses, the M8S algorithm
operates with a variable number of CI's and, as a consequence, the area of
prediction changes in time. At the present, the level of completeness of
the catalogue has practically stabilised.
- The M8S algorithm predictions refer to seismogenic areas only and by no
means imply equal probability of strong earthquakes in seismic and aseismic
territories inside circles of investigation.
