Title of research project: Statistical Estimation of Maximal Expectable Magnitude of Earthquake for a Given Region

Reference number of grant: MJF000

Period of performance: 1994 to 1996

Principal Investigator: Prof. V. Pisarenko

Total funds: US$ 27,877

Summary:

One of the most important characteristics of seismic process is maximal expectable earthquake magnitude for a givem region. It is important both for theoretical and for practical purposes. On the one hand it is directly connected which seismic energy flux and tectonic regime, on the other hand, it is key parameter for seismic zoning and seismic hazard assessing. The objective of this project was to develop methods of statistical estimation of maximal expectable magnitude Mmax or its equivalent for a given region. The distribution of Mmax (T) the maximum magnitude, that could occur in future period (t, t+T) was derived as well. The method is based on earthquake catalogs of arbitrary size. The dependence of Mmax, Mmax(T) - estimates on the magnitude - frequency law and its parameters will be investigated. A modification of the method will be Imax, Imax(T), (Imax,Imax(T) are maximal expect earthquake intensity and maximal intensity for a future period (t, t+T) correspondingly). This technique is to any stationary sequence of events (floods, Typhoons, etc).