Title of research project: Development and Validation of Intermediate-Term Earthquake Prediction Algorithms

Reference number of grant: MCI000

Period of performance: 1994 to 1996

Principal Investigator: Dr. V. Kossobokov

Total funds: US$ 21,453


The major objective of the project was to explore extensively and improve the methodology of intermediate prediction of large earthquakes. We analyzed routine global, regional, and local catalogs of earthquakes and developed an appropriate "null distribution" theory of large earthquake occurrences which accounts for spatial heterogeneity of seismic activity. Such a null theory is used for refinement of existing earthquake prediction algorithms, for development and testing of risk function approaches to earthquake prediction, and for assessment of performance and sensitivity of earthquake prediction methods.