Title of research project: Conversion of R&D in Missile Navigation to Nonlinear Problems in Earth Sciences

Reference number of the grant: ISTC-1293-99

Period of performance: 3 year; from 1 July 1999 to 30 June 2002

Project Manager: Dr. A. Ismail-Zadeh

Participating Russian Institutions: - International Institute for Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics (IEPT), Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow - Institute of Mathematics and Mechanics (IMM), Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Ekaterinburg;

Foreign Collaborators: - Institute of Physics of the Earth in Paris, France; - Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics UNESCO-IAEA, Trieste, Italy; - Department of Earth Sciences & Department of Naval Architecture, Ocean and Environmental Engineering, University of Trieste, Italy; - Institute of Earth Sciences, I.Gutenberg University of Mainz, Germany; - Institute of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Sweden; - International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Vienna, Austria.


OBJECTIVE: The goal of the Project is development of a scientific base for better understanding geophysical processes associated with ecological catastrophes and natural hazards. The Project addresses the following general problem areas: theoretical explanation of the processes of lithosphere dynamics, particularly, those causing earthquakes; earthquake prediction; methods of investigation of ozone holes; ecological monitoring and search for mineral deposits using satellite, geological, geophysical, and seismological data.

The studies will be a logical continuation of the research on mathematical geophysics started within the framework of the ISTC Project #008-94 and be made by a joint research group consisting of scientists from the Institute of Mathematics and Mechanics (IMM), Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, who worked earlier in missile navigation and scientists from the International Institute for Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics (IEPT), Russian Academy of Sciences, working in mathematical geophysics.

ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Creation of new possibilities to fill in the existing gap between theoretical models and phenomenology of instability in the lithosphere that will provide a new theoretical base for prediction and possibly control of critical phenomena in the lithosphere. Development of numerical techniques for modelling the interaction between surface and lithospheric processes. Development of new statistical methods that use all available seismological data and can provide reconstruction of stress and strain fields in a wide interval of scales (5-5000 km, 0.1-20 years) without having to expand the observational capabilities. Development of new methods for seismic source study by analysis of seismic wave spectra. Development of the method of determination of density of free electrons in the ionosphere based on Doppler's frequency shift measurements for the case of the radiosounding from a satellite with registration on another satellite with application to investigation of ozone holes. Development of automated methods, algorithms, and software for combined analysis of available satellite, geological, geophysical, and seismological data for the study of ecology, natural disasters, and mineral deposits.

FEASIBILITY of these goals is based on (i) the results of the studies started within the framework of the ISTC Project #008-94, proved to be quite successful, (ii) complementary expertise of the participants, and (iii) the close collaborations with the scientists from France, Germany, Italy, Sweden, and USA that were established. The investigations on mathematical geophysics with applications to the problems of ecology and natural hazards were started within the framework of the ISTC Project #008-94 that provided the possibility to start a conversion of the weapon scientists to peaceful fields and to introduce them to the problems of mathematical geophysics. The methods, algorithms, and software which were developed as a result of the execution of the ISTC Project #008- 94 will be applied for solving the problems formulated in the proposed project. The approaches to solving these problems are outlined in the existent plans of the further joint studies with the foreign collaborators.

SCOPE OF ACTIVITY of the project will include theoretical analysis of the problems under consideration, development of mathematical algorithms for solution of specific problems, development and testing of the software realising the algorithms, numerical modelling, collecting of data - geological, tectonic and topographic maps, gravity, heat flow, seismicity, sonar data, remote sensing, satellite images etc., data processing by means of the algorithms and software developed, preparation of scientific publications, reports, and presentations at scientific conferences and meetings, work seminars, and foreign travels to attend international scientific meetings and to contact the foreign collaborators.

METHODOLOGY of the project was formed as a result of the execution of the ISTC Project #008-94. It is based on the following branches of applied mathematics which have applications both in navigation and control of missiles and in mathematical geophysics: analysis of behaviour of dynamical systems described by differential equations (ordinary and with partial derivatives) and inverse problems for them; pattern recognition and scene analysis; computer analysis of geological and geophysical data.

POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTION OF THE FOREIGN COLLABORATORS will include joint studies on the project subjects, exchange of methods, software and data, searching for possible practical applications of results obtained, and holding international workshops on the project subjects.