Title of research project: Application of R&D in military aviation systems to problems of monitoring of global seismicity with the aim of mitigation of damage caused by disastrous earthquakes.

Reference number of the grant: ISTC-415-96

Period of performance: October 1, 1996 to September 30, 1999

Project Manager: Dr. N. Tsybin


Creation of new tools for monitoring and new methodology for processing and analysis of geophysical data with the aim of enhancement of methods of earthquake prediction research and seismic risk reduction. For this purpose a group of scientists of the Federal Research Institute of Aviation Systems (FRIAS) working on development of strategic military aviation systems will be switched to development of hard- and soft-ware for enhanced monitoring of seismicity and detailed scanning of relief in selected areas potentially dangerous for large earthquake occurrence. They will be integrated into joint frontier research with scientists of the International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics (IEPT) and a number of collaborators abroad working on these or relevant problems.

ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Production of prototype of seismometric module designed for use in field conditions and its testing in close to real conditions. Probing of different ways of satellite telecommunication and completion as a result the feasibility report for future production of satellite based seismicity monitoring system of enhanced sensitivity for rapid deployment in areas critical to future large earthquakes. Creation of new methodology for processing of geological, geophysical, and seismological information with the aim of radical improvement of the signal-to-noise ratio in the areas detected as having increased probability of large earthquakes by existing earthquake prediction algorithms and detection of unstable geological structures, especially in vast densely populated areas of low seismicity where large earthquakes are extremely rare but still possible and imminent and their destructive effect can cause a worldwide economic crisis. FEASIBILITY of these goals can be confirmed by existing positions of IEPT in the field of study of global seismicity, high professional standards of specialists of FRIAS in the areas of telecommunications and methods of signal detection in active and passive noise, and close cooperation with collaborators from USA, Belgium, Italy, France, and other countries.

SCOPE OF ACTIVITY of the project includes joint seminars to involve the weapon scientists in technical, geophysical and mathematical aspects of the problem and formulation of specific problems; working out technical requirements for the telecommunication system; design, creation and testing of seismometry unit of the data acquisition system; theoretical analysis of selected problems by joint subgroups; creation of algorithms and software; numerical analysis and real data processing; preparation of final reports.

METHODOLOGY of the project includes the methods used in telemetry of testing of strategic bombers on ultra-long routes (FRIAS) combined with the methods of design and creation of broad-band low-noise seismometric equipment of the world level already deployed along the profile GB - Belgium - Germany - Russia (IEPT). Algorithms of intermediate-term prediction of major earthquakes (IEPT) which are now being formally tested in two laboratories of US Geological Survey will be nested in a hierarchical structure with adequate adjustment for treatment of events of different magnitudes with application of pattern recognition methods used in navigation of low-flying planes or missiles (FRIAS). Statistical analysis of interaction between small and large earthquakes (IEPT) will be augmented by methodology developed in FRIAS for detection of signals hidden in active and passive noise, methods of optimal filtering of geometrical features for identification of dangerous seismogenic structures from geological maps, airplane and satellite photographs.