The problems covered by IEPT activity and recent results
are the following.
- General theory of deterministic chaos.
- Nonlinear dynamics of the lithosphere and earthquake prediction.
- Modeling of dynamics of block and fault systems.
- Algorithms for intermediate-term earthquake prediction and their successful applications
- Hierarchical models of crack formation and application of renormalisation group methods
and theory of critical phenomena to the study of seismicity and earthquake prediction.
- Identification of earthquake-prone areas by pattern recognition approach. This approach
was applied to numerous mountain countries, and was recently expanded to active platforms
(Siberian, Central Russian, and Indian ones).
- Probabilistic estimation of seismic risk in terms of the damage to economy and
population for the biggest cities of the world, earthquake insurance of rural dwellings in
Georgia (FSU), Baikal-Amur railroad, Italy etc.
- Geophysical fluid dynamics: quantitative modeling of basin evolution. An alternative
mechanism of sedimentary basin subsidence has been suggested and applied to North American
and some Russian basins.
- Forward and inverse problems of seismology. Problems of uniqueness and stability were
introduced along with the methods of reducing non-uniqueness by joint analysis of diverse
data. New approaches to forward problems of surface wave propagation in laterally
inhomogeneous media were found. New algorithms for inversion of surface wave data have
been designed and applied to studies of lithospheric structure of different regions in
Eurasia and of space-time seismic source features of recent strong earthquakes.
- Signal-to-noise enhancement for a single stations and arrays and sophisticated data
processing. New algorithms were developed for signal detection based on autoregressive
models of seismic wave fields. They were successfully applied to detection of weak
earthquakes and nuclear explosions. Detection threshold is improved by factor 10 comparing
to traditional methods used in the West. New algorithms of frequency-time analysis were
developed and applied to high resolution studies of dispersion and polarisation of surface
- Broadband seismological registration.
The current goals of the Institute are the following.
- Scenarious of development of instability in hierarchical nonlinear (chaotic) system:
theory and numerical simulation.
- New generation of earthquake prediction algorithms, with tenfold increase of accuracy.
This is based on integration of modeling, phenomenology, and neotectonics.
- Instability/seismicity of platforms. Reconsideration of instability for the sites of
- Monitoring of stress-strain field in seismic regions. Kinematic and geometric
incompatibility in the fault system.
- Interaction with civic protection authorities in estimation of seismic risk and in
- Geophysical fluid dynamics: interplay between mantle flows and surface processes.
- New state-of-the-art broadband seismograph (now being tested in Belgium and UK).